Monday, June 02, 2008

Thoughts on the Vice-Presidency

By Marc Korman.

I try to keep my posts limited to Maryland politics, but the national political climate is too exciting to ignore. If you are a political junkie, and I suspect you are if you are reading this blog, then you have been talking about who will be the Democrats’ Vice Presidential nominee.

No One Says No

Last weekend, a friend of mine wrote to me upset that his favored Vice Presidential candidate, Jim Webb, had said on Meet the Press that he was not interested. John Edwards has also said he is not interested in the Vice Presidency. There has also been a lot of discussion about whether or not Hillary Clinton would accept the Vice Presidency. Setting aside the question of if the likely nominee, Barack Obama, would even ask any of these people, pundits and junkies are already trying to determine whether these people would or would not accept the job.

Let me share with you a secret about the Vice Presidency: no one says no.

The two people who have had the best reasons to turn down the job were Speaker of the House John Nance Garner in 1932 and Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

In 1932, the Democratic Party gathered in Chicago and picked FDR as their nominee. The convention turned to Speaker of the House Garner to serve as the Vice Presidency. Despite his powerful position as Speaker of the House, he gladly accepted the nomination.

When the Democrats gathered in Los Angeles in 1960 to nominate JFK for the presidency, Democrats in the Senate had 65 seats and Lyndon Johnson was the “Master of the Senate.” The Vice Presidency was a step down in terms of power, but he took the job anyway.

The power and prestige of the Vice Presidency has only increased since these two legislative titans abdicated power for it. President Carter’s Vice President, Mondale, brought the office into the West Wing by getting office space in that center of power. Al Gore had weekly lunches with President Clinton, an unprecedented level of access. Dick Cheney’s power and influence in the current Administration is well known.

Not The Best Launching Pad

The political prestige of the Vice Presidency is also, despite some sobering history, quite high. Despite most people’s conception, the only proven path from the Vice-Presidency to the Presidency are circumstances of death or resignation. Nine times in our nation’s history Vice-Presidents have ascended to the Presidency this way.

But short of those death or removal circumstances, only a handful of Vice Presidents have directly succeeded the Presidents they served in elections. These are John Adams, Thomas Jefferson (who defeated the President he served as Vice President under), Martin Van Buren, and George H.W. Bush. Harry Truman was also the next elected President after the President he served as Vice President under, but he had already succeeded to the office.

Other Vice Presidents have tried, and failed, to be elected president. Alben Barkley, Truman’s Vice President, failed to even get nominated by his party. Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Al Gore all had more luck in the primaries, but failed to win the general election (conceding for the moment that Al Gore lost the election).

By the numbers, Governors (preferably of large states) have a much better path to the presidency. 11 Presidents held governorships as their last political office before becoming president. 5 presidents held Senate seats as their last political office before the presidency. By comparison, three Presidents served as Secretaries of State as their last political office before the presidency. Another great path to the White House, at least until Eisenhower, was being a general.

My Bet

In case you care, my bet for the Vice Presidency is a middle-aged white guy, probably a Clinton loyalist like Wesley Clark, Ted Strickland, or Evan Bayh. Potentially, you could also see a non-Clinton middle-aged white guy such as Jim Webb. Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano will probably be spoken about because they are able, female governors, but none bring the defense and foreign policy weight that Obama needs (nor does Strickland). But my bet in 2004 was Tom Vilsack, so that shows how poor my track record is.