The Decision is Still Hot Off the Presses But. . .

. . . the pundits are already speculating on the impact of Tom Perez's forced withdrawal on the race for attorney general. There are two competing theories on this one.

(1) Like Tom Perez, Doug Gansler is also from Montgomery. All those Montgomery votes which would otherwise go to Perez will now go to hometown favorite and current State's Attorney Doug Gansler. Indeed, some might wonder if the lawsuit, filed by Montgomery School Board Member Stephen Abrams, was really intended to benefit Doug Gansler for this reason.

(2) Tom Perez was running as a strong progressive. His supporters cannot stand Doug Gansler, who is running as a tough prosecutor and also his geographic rival Perez's active supporters and his voters will now move to Simms and give him a valuable boost as he faces the more strongly funded Gansler candidacy.

The Baltimore Sun guardedly favors the idea that it will aid Gansler though they also give space to those who don't share this point of view. A commenter (Yockel) on my original post thinks it will aid Simms.

I also wonder what impact that Perez's absence will have on Latino turnout in the Democratic primary. He did a great job mobilizing Latinos in his successful run for the District 5 seat on the Montgomery County Council. His candidacy had the potential to mobilize Latinos, already stimulated by the marches on immigration, to again return to the polls in large numbers.