Late Election Night Commentary

Off the cuff thoughts on the results from last night. Hillary Clinton had a night of good press coverage and what look like solid wins in Ohio and Rhode Island--Barack Obama won Vermont in a walk. Texas remains a toss-up at this point though Sen. Clinton currently has about a two-point lead.

1. It's Going to Get Nastier
Negative worked for Hillary. She is going to do more of it--lots more of it. Barack will have to respond. Which leads to my second point:

2. It's Good for McCain
The Democratic nomination contest resembles a boxing ring increasingly. Primaries can strengthen candidates but this is starting to look bloody with the attacks aiding the GOP--not the Democrats.

3. Psychology Good, Delegate Math Bad for Clinton
As I wrote yesterday, this result is essentially the nightmare scenario. If Clinton's lead holds in Texas, she will have won both big states but essentially gained no net delegates. Clinton has gained critical momentum and looks like a tough fighter but the math is still against her winning the pledged delegate count.

4. Clinton is Willing to Split the Party
Clinton is clearly determined to go on--and the results from tonight so far do nothing to discourage her despite Bill's earlier statement that she needed "big" wins in Texas and Ohio to continue. Yet, the math means that she can only seize the nomination through superdelegates and counting the non-contests in Michigan and Florida in violation of her own pledge and Democratic rules. If this occurs, it will not be pretty.

5. Stay Tuned.
It has been quite a wild ride. On to Wyoming and Mississippi.