Tom Schaller has an interesting column in the Baltimore Sun arguing that black women may well determine who determines the Democratic presidential nomination. Since African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, the black share of the Democratic primary vote is usually higher than the black share of the overall electorate. And black women make up an outsized chunk of the black vote:
Because African-American men not only are fewer in number but also register and vote at much lower rates, black women cast almost three of every five of these votes - 59 percent, to be precise. White women also outnumber, out-register and outvote white men, but the disparity is smaller (53 percent to 47 percent).Two factors help explain why black women outvote black men and a stronger rate than white women outvote white men. Education is the strongest predictor of who votes. Unlike among whites, women are better educated than men in the African-American population. Felon disfranchisement also plays a role. Several states with sizeable black populations disfranchise people with felony convictions. A disproportionate share of blacks, especially black men, have lost their voting rights as a result.
