I tried to draw a majority-Republican legislative district in Montgomery. It no longer seems possible. This district went 62-36 for Obama in 2008 and 63-37 for O'Malley in 2006.
Showing posts with label redistricting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label redistricting. Show all posts
Thursday, March 17, 2011
No Matter How You Slice It
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Anne Arundel Legislative Districts?
Excluding District 21, which is mostly in Prince George's, Anne Arundel currently elects 12 delegates, eight of whom are Republicans. This map might reverse that partisan balance. It was constructed without any knowledge of current legislator home addresses.
Based on its population, Anne Arundel is entitled to four full legislative districts and also could contain a subdistrict electing a single delegate. Bear in mind that the population figures may be a bit off as Maryland requires that the numbers be readjusted to reallocate the prison population to their last known address.
The grey district in northeastern Anne Arundel is similar to current District 31 which elects three Republicans except that it loses some territory in Glen Burnie and gains new (Republican-leaning) territory in central Anne Arundel. The new district would be very Republican, having voted for McCain over Obama by 62-36, to the benefit of Democrats elsewhere.
The three other complete legislative districts would favor Democrats, though by a smaller amount. The pink district in northwestern Anne Arundel is similar to current District 32 (which currently elects three Democrats) except that it is shift somewhat east. This district voted 54-44 for Obama in 2008 and 58-42 for O'Malley in 2006.
The blue district in western Anne Arundel is most similar to District 33 but with major changes, including taking in most of the Anne Arundel section of District 21. The district outlined here voted 54-45 for Obama and was about two points more Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. In the 2010 election, District 33 elected three Republicans though this district might be more favorable to the Democrats.
The Annapolis-based district in eastern Anne Arundel went 53-45 for Obama and was about two points more Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Current District 30 elects one Democrat--Speaker Michael Busch--and two Republicans. As it sheds Republican-leaning territory for more favorable turf, Democrats might also perform more strongly here.
The purple district in southern Anne Arundel would elect just one delegate. It listed heavily Republican--56-43 for Obama--in the 2008 presidential election but went for Ehrlich by only four points in 2006.
Harford State Legislative Districts?
Harford is a very Republican county in a very Democratic state. As in Frederick, the population growth that warrants giving additional representation to the area would seemingly be good news for the GOP. Except that it all depends on how the lines are drawn.
The 2010 Census revealed that Harford now has enough population for almost complete two legislative districts--an increase of virtually a full delegate over ten years ago. The above map shows one sample plan for two districts in Harford. Bear in mind that the population figures may be a bit off as Maryland requires that the numbers be readjusted to reallocate the prison population to their last known address.
As shown here, the northern district would be very Republican--it went for McCain over Obama by a margin of 67-31. It somewhat resembles current District 35 except that the current district takes in Bel Air and the map above would place it in the southern district. District 35 is divided into two subdistricts--including one centered on Bel Air which elects one delegate. The senator and all three delegates are Republicans.
The southern district would lean marginally to the Democrats in presidential elections. Obama carried it over McCain by 50-48 but Democrats fared considerably better in state elections. This district resembles current House of Delegates Subdistrict 34A (though that district does not include Bel Air) which now elects one Democrat and one Republican. District 34 has a Republican senator.
One might expect that the new version of District 34 would be highly competitive. Except that I suspect that someone with access to software that allowed one to fine tune the lines to a higher degree than I used here--and no doubt anyone doing this for real would have that access--could draw the map so that it leans more strongly to the Democrats.
Another alternative would be to create a two-member subdistrict that would likely send two Democrats to the House in Annapolis and a one-member subdistrict centered on Bel Air that would be much more likely to elect a Republican even as the Senate seat remained marginal.
In short, the Democrats may well be no worse off--and may even benefit--from gains in representation in a county that leans to the Republicans. The geographic political divide--Republicans tend to live in northern Harford while Democrats are concentrated in southern Harford--facilitates a maps with this result.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Frederick State Legislative Districts?
Here is a potential map for two state legislative districts centered on Frederick County. Bear in mind that the population figures may be a bit off as Maryland requires that the numbers be readjusted to reallocate the prison population to their last known address.
Republicans hope that growth in "Republican" parts of the State, like Frederick might aid their party in legislative contests. However, the number of Democrats has grown along with Frederick's population and it is not difficult to draw one legislative district that leans to each party.
The northern district would be heavily Republican, having gone for McCain over Obama by 59-39. It includes a small slice of Washington County, though it could alternatively include part of Carroll County. District 4 now includes much of the same territory in Frederick as well as a big slice of western Carroll which is currently a separate subdistrict (4B) for elections to the House of Delegates. District 4 currently elects all Republicans.
The southern district includes the City of Frederick and would lean heavily Democratic; it went for Obama over McCain by 57-42. This district resembles current District 3 which is broken into two districts for purposes of House elections. District 3A is centered on the City of Frederick and elects one Democrat and one Republican. District 3B includes southern Frederick County and elects a Republican.
If the new district were at large, both Republican delegates might face a stiff fight for reelection. On the other hand, both might find hope in the fact they have already done well in territory that has otherwise been favorable to Democrats. Sen. Ron Young defeated Alex Mooney to take District 3's Senate seat in 2010.
Seven Democratic Districts?
One exciting aspect of redistricting this year is that almost anyone can play. Here is hurriedly drawn-up plan that shows one of many possible redistricting scenarios for 2012.
This map provides an extremely rough example of what a congressional redistricting plan with seven Democratic-leaning districts might look like. Extending the Sixth into Montgomery, where it used to go back in the 1980s when I lived in Beverly Byron's district, would switch it from a Republican to Democratic leaning district. All of the other six current Democratic districts continue to lean Democratic.
This map preserves the Fourth and Seventh as black-majority districts. The Fourth swaps territory in Montgomery for Anne Arundel. The Seventh no longer extends into Howard County--placed entirely in a substantially reworked Third District here--but takes in more of Baltimore County.
The First is very safe for Republicans by taking in strong Republican territory along the Mason-Dixon line as well as the Eastern Shore. The most severe changes likely would occur in the Baltimore area districts, particularly the Second and the Third Districts.
Note that the populations are only roughly, not perfectly equal. Also, the addresses of the incumbents (and other serious potential contenders) were unknown when this was drawn so to the extent that people are moved in or out of their current district the impact was unintended.
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