In Part Four, we discussed how the Democrats have made major gains in voter registrations throughout the state over the last two years. Today, we look at five counties where they have done especially well.
Charles County
October 2006: 50.0% Democrat, 33.5% Republican, 16.6% Other
October 2008: 55.1% Democrat, 29.4% Republican, 15.5% Other
Over the last eight years, Charles County’s total voter registration has increased by 47%, the top growth rate in the state. And the fastest-growing Maryland county is now the fastest-growing county for the Democratic Party. All of Charles County’s state legislators are Democrats and population-adjusted redistricting may add more Democratic seats there in the next round.
Prince George’s County
October 2006: 74.5% Democrat, 11.1% Republican, 14.5% Other
October 2008: 77.6% Democrat, 9.5% Republican, 12.9% Other
Prince George’s County has the greatest number of registered Democrats in the state (383,541) and the third-highest total registered voters (494,275). One of every five Maryland Democrats lives in Prince George’s County. That guarantees a marquee role for the county in every statewide Democratic primary. Attorney General Doug Gansler and Comptroller Peter Franchot defeated Baltimore-area candidates in 2006 in part by rolling up substantial margins in Prince George’s County. If the next County Executive after Jack Johnson builds a credible record, that person will be a serious contender for the Governor’s chair.
Montgomery County
October 2006: 54.2% Democrat, 24.7% Republican, 21.2% Other
October 2008: 56.6% Democrat, 22.4% Republican, 21.0% Other
Montgomery County has the highest number of total registered voters in the state (553,366), about ten percent more than Baltimore County (500,711). The GOP’s utter collapse in Montgomery (see Part Three) is a major reason for its statewide troubles.
Frederick County
October 2006: 36.5% Democrat, 45.3% Republican, 18.3% Other
October 2008: 38.5% Democrat, 42.4% Republican, 19.1% Other
State Senator Alex Mooney (R-3) is one of the most conservative legislators in the General Assembly. His district includes the City of Frederick, the most Democratic area in Frederick County. In 2006, Mooney defeated Democrat Candy Greenway by a tight vote of 21,844 to 20,111. The fact that the Democrats have now almost caught up to Republicans in registrations puts Mooney in danger. District 3B, which borders Montgomery County, is currently represented by Delegate Richard Weldon. Weldon recently changed his registration from Republican to unaffiliated and announced his intention to retire in 2010. His seat could easily be picked up by the Democrats.
Howard County
October 2006: 46.7% Democrat, 33.8% Republican, 19.5% Other
October 2008: 48.4% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, 19.9% Other
District 9A in Northern Howard County is represented by two Republicans: Delegates Gail Bates and Warren Miller. In 2006, Bates (22,862 votes) and Miller (18,533) defeated Democrat David Osmundson (16,162) in the general election. Next time around, the Democrats should be able to field two Delegate candidates and will have a chance to knock off one or both of the GOP incumbents. They are already making preparations. Districts 12A, 12B and 13 are already represented by Democrats who were elected with healthy margins in 2006. Senate Minority Leader Allan Kittleman (R-9) is probably protected by the fact that his district is partially located in more conservative Carroll County.
Numbers can be relentless. And in Maryland, they point to the utter collapse of the Republican Party at every level. Has the GOP bottomed out? Can it ever be revived? We’ll have some answers in 2010.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Free State GOP Fades to Black, Part Five
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Free State GOP Fades to Black, Part Four
The Washington Post, the Baltimore Sun and Gazette columnist Blair Lee have all looked at Democratic gains in voter registrations since 2004. But all of them are missing the point. Since 1992, Maryland has voted Democratic in Presidential elections by double digits and probably will continue to do so. The real impact of Democratic registration increases may be felt on state and local elections. And since the last round of those elections in 2006, Democratic gains have been eye-opening.
Below are two charts illustrating voter registrations by party and county at the end of October in 2006 and 2008.
In just two years, Democratic registrations have soared by double digits in 8 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions for a total gain of 11.7%. Democratic registrations have dropped in only two counties: Allegany and Talbot. Republicans did not achieve a double-digit increase in any county and shrank in seven counties, including Montgomery and Prince George’s. Their total registration increase was a tiny 1.7%. Overall, the Democrats added 202,122 voters while the GOP gained 15,752. New registrations not affiliated with either major party went up by 50,480.
These new registrations are producing small but noticeable shifts in the voter balance in some counties.
The Democratic percentage of registered voters increased in 16 of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions over the last two years. At the same time, the Republican percentage of registered voters has declined in every single jurisdiction. The biggest shifts in favor of the Democrats have been in Charles County (plus 5.1 points), Prince George’s County (3.1 points), Montgomery County (2.4 points), Frederick County (2.0 points) and Howard County (1.7 points).
We will examine these counties more closely in Part Five.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Free State GOP Fades to Black, Part Three
Baltimore City and Prince George’s County have long been dominated by the Democrats. Baltimore County has been regarded as a swing county. Once upon a time, Montgomery County was not so different from Baltimore County. That time is now long gone.
Since 1990, between one-quarter and one-third of Baltimore County’s state legislators and the eight county officials (seven Council Members and the County Executive) have been Republicans. The last Republican County Executive, Roger Hayden, served between 1990 and 1994.
Additionally, much of Baltimore County was represented in Congress by Republicans Helen Delich Bentley (1984-1994) and Bob Ehrlich (1994-2002). While the GOP did not dominate Baltimore County, they were competitive enough to challenge the Democrats most of the time.
Montgomery County also once had a competitive Republican party.
Republicans held seats in Districts 14 (which was once split with Howard County), 15 (Potomac and western Montgomery) and 39 (which once extended to the Frederick County border). Most of the county was also represented by Congresswoman Connie Morella (1986-2002). But Montgomery’s Republicans have waned steadily from holding one-quarter of the county’s elected offices in 1994 to zero today.
The GOP’s fadeout in Montgomery County and its minority position in Baltimore County has greatly damaged its ability to compete on a statewide basis. At the end of October 2008, 56% of the state’s registered voters lived in the Big Four jurisdictions – Baltimore City and Baltimore, Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. And of the 158 state legislative, County Executive/Mayor and County/City Council positions in those jurisdictions, Democrats now hold 149 seats (94%), with the only 9 Republican seats located in Baltimore County.
The GOP’s virtual annihilation in these jurisdictions prevents it from developing young talent. After all, Governors, Senators and Members of Congress often start as County Council Members and Delegates. And one of the reasons why Republican gubernatorial candidates like Ellen Sauerbrey and Bob Ehrlich were able to compete on a statewide basis is that they could tap into a large enough base of surrogates, activists and fundraisers who could create a geographically diversified electoral push. Now that the Republicans are almost extinct in the state’s most populated areas, that may no longer be possible.
All of the above trends have been developing over the past five state election cycles. But now one recent development has pushed the GOP to the edge: big Democratic registration gains during the last Presidential primary. More on that in Part Four.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Free State GOP Fades to Black, Part Two
The Maryland Republican Party is in deep trouble. Barack Obama’s 25-point win is just one sign. Far more worrisome are changes in voter registrations.
Between October 2000 and October 2008, the GOP’s voter registrations grew by 14.8%. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Democratic registrations grew by 25.1% and other registrations grew by 52.0% over the same period.
The Democratic share of registered voters has held steady near 57%. Registrations not affiliated with either of the two major parties have climbed from 13% to 16%. The GOP’s share has fallen from 30% to 27%. For whatever reason, voters who do not want to join the Democrats are increasingly choosing alternatives other than the Republicans.
The regional composition of the two parties has been changing in very different ways. Below is the regional distribution of the state’s Democrats in October 2000 and October 2008.
The Democrats are slowly, steadily orienting themselves away from Baltimore and towards the Washington suburbs. In 2000, the share of Democrats in Baltimore City and Baltimore County (32.8%) roughly equaled the share of Democrats in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties (32.3%). Eight years later, the share of Democrats in the two Baltimore jurisdictions (30.4%) trailed the two Washington suburban counties (36.0%). Using an expanded definition of the Baltimore area (Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Howard Counties), Baltimore’s percentage of state Democrats has fallen from 50.7% to 47.5%. Perhaps for the first time in Maryland’s history, a Democratic statewide candidate can win a party primary while losing in Baltimore and its suburbs.
The Republicans are going in a different direction.
The GOP is actually becoming more Baltimore-oriented. The share of its registrations in Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties has increased from 26.6% to 27.3%. Using the broader definition of the Baltimore area, the percentage of Maryland Republicans living there has grown from 47.7% to 49.4%. This has been driven not by fast growth of the GOP in Baltimore but by absolute reductions of Republicans in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. The share of Maryland Republicans living in those two counties has fallen from 22.3% to 18.5%.
The Democrats have kept up with the historic shift of Maryland’s population towards the Washington suburbs. The Republicans have not. And the Democrats have grown much more rapidly in the state’s fastest-growing region, Southern Maryland (by 41.8%), than have the Republicans (25.4%).
We will look at the consequences of the GOP’s failure to keep pace in Part Three.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Free State GOP Fades to Black, Part One
Maryland’s Republican Party is in a downward spiral. The problem goes far beyond the ideological disputes between the party’s leaders. It also goes beyond the recent overwhelming victory in the state by President Barack Obama. And the party’s poor position in the state legislature is merely a reflection of the GOP’s difficulties, not the cause. By every measure, the party is in serious trouble and the end is not yet in sight.
First, let’s begin by comparing the last two presidential elections in the state. Here are the numbers by county from 2004:
And here are the numbers by county from 2008:
The obvious fact is that Obama’s total margin (25.4 points) nearly doubled Kerry’s margin (13.0 points). But that understates the extent of Obama’s domination. As depicted by the chart below, Obama surpassed Kerry’s performance in every Maryland county.
Maryland has voted for the Democratic nominee for President in every election since 1992. But the Democratic nominee’s margins have been far less than Obama’s, ranging from 13 points (Kerry) to 17 points (Al Gore). Was Barack Obama’s gigantic margin due to George W. Bush’s epic unpopularity, the state’s large black population, or something else?
Whatever the answer may be, this is just the start of the GOP’s problems. We will begin looking at voter registrations in Part Two.
