MCEA v. County Council Round 2?

Are the County Council and MCEA getting ready to go loggerheads over the County education budget? An activist friend writes:

The school board recently negotiated a contract with MCEA averaging 5% increases and passed an education budget of $1.98 billion. County Executive Ike Leggett recommended giving the schools $20 million less, citing a tight budget year and inadequate school subsidies from the state. According to the Sentinel, both the school board and MCEA are predicting dire consequences, including wage cuts, layoffs and increased class sizes if the budget is not fully funded.

A similar situation occurred in 2003. At that time, the county council was considering a delay in a cost of living increase due to the Teachers in their negotiated contract. Council members Subin, Andrews, Praisner and Floreen voted against MCEA, and the MCEA did not place them on the 2006 Apple ballot (see the Gazette's take as well). Subin was defeated as a result, and Floreen (despite her powerful position as chair of the Transportation Committee) squeaked into re-election in the fourth at-large slot in the primary.

It will be very interesting to see whether County Executive Leggett or MCEA will win this battle with spots on the powerful Apple ballot potentially at stake in 2010. One suspects that the court of public opinion will be crucial here. If County Executive Leggett wants to defend his cuts in a County where education is a religion, he is going to have to make his case.

Similarly, MCEA, the School Board, and other supporters of more spending will gain an edge if they can show that the education system needs the money. They may also gain sympathy to the extent that they can show that County teachers continue to fight hard with the fast rising cost of health care, housing, and transportation.

Anyone have a different perspective?