Who Decides Elections to the General Assembly?

Registering as a Democrat and voting in the primary is the smart move in Montgomery County politics if you want to have any influence on the outcome of the election. Registering unaffiliated (the official name for independents in Maryland) or voting only in the general election is practically like throwing your ballot away. The Democrats are the only game in town. Here's why:

Montgomery County may be one of the richest counties in America but it is also a Democratic bastion. Republicans have been gradually all but ethnically cleansed from the County's state legislative delegation. Moderate Republican Del. Jean Cryor (District 15) is the only Republican reamining in the County's 32-member delegation.

Five of its eight state legislative districts (Districts 16-20) are impregnable Democratic fortresses. Districts 14 (Northeast) and 39 (Germantown and Montgomery Village) lean strongly to the Democrats though the Republicans have an outside chance. District 39 elected a Republican state legislative delegation before Sen. Hogan switched parties and all three went GOP delegates went down to defeat in 1998. Only District 15 (Poolesville and Potomac) is a truly marginal district and even it is trending Democratic.

In state legislative districts safe for one party, the primary is the critical election as the general election routinely ratifies the dominant party's choice. In Montgomery County, the Democratic Primary is thus the key election in most contests. Democratic nominees in most of the County's state legislative district don't need to sweat the general election too much.

Although the County's population is steadily climbing toward 1 million, the number of voters who decide our state legislative elections is very small. Only Democratic primary voters have a real say in electoral outcomes most of the time. And the Democratic primary electorate is far smaller the total adult population.

Only 71 percent of the County's adult population is even registered to vote. Though Democrats are the dominant party, only 38 percent of adults are registered Democrats. Maryland elects virtually all of its state and county officials at the same time but turnout in non-presidential election years is much lower than in presidential election years. Turnout in primaries in even lower. In 2002, a year in which a hot congressional primary stimulated turnout, only 54 percent of registered Democrats, or 20 percent of adults, participated in the primary.

However, the number of people who actually select our state legislators is even less than one-fifth of the adult electorate because many Democratic primary voters don't vote in all contests. Most voters cast a ballot in gubernatorial or congressional primaries but many choose not to participate in down-ballot state legislative primaries either because they don't care about the result or don't know enough about the candidates. Political scientists call this the tendency to participate at lower rates in down-ballot contests the "roll-off effect."

The roll-off effect in state legislative primaries in Montgomery County is far from small. Only about 70 percent of Democratic primary voters actually cast a vote in a primary for the state senate. The low rate of participation in these contests was not due to the fact that half of state senate primaries were uncontested. Approximately the same number of people voted in the state senate primaries in districts with primary contests as without them. Moreover, turnout in contests for the House of Delegates was even lower at 65 percent even though all but one district had more candidates than available nominations. (However, this calculation wrongly assumes that all participants voted for the maximum three delegates.)

The electorate that participates in the key election for the state legislature is thus quite an elite group. Only 14 percent of adults voted in the 2002 Democratic primaries for state senate, and an even lower 13 percent voted in the primaries for the House of Delegates. This primary season, this shrunken electorate will be heavily courted by state legislative candidates. They will receive mailings, phone calls and even personal visits from candidates. Most other people will be completely ignored. Now you know why.