It's late at night but it's election night so I can't resist giving my quick take on some of the results.
Impact of Montgomery Election Fiasco
We are very fortunate in the U.S. Senate and Attorney General races in that the winners are relatively clear. Cardin leads Mfume by 46 to 37% and Gansler leads Simms by 55 to 43% with around 2/3 of the precincts reporting. The election fiasco in Montgomery did not cause either of the Montgomery-preferred candidates to lose the Democratic nomination. Cardin faces a tough general election opponent; a post-election fight or doubt over the nomination would undoubtedly injure the party.
The Comptroller's race, however, may be an ugly mess. It is a close three-way race with 35% for Owens, 34% for Franchot, and 31% for Schaefer. Montgomery is Franchot's base; he currently trails statewide by less than 4000 votes. Franchot and his attorneys may well think Franchot would have won if so many people were not turned away from the polls in the morning if the final results follow the same pattern. However, I don't know what relief any court could grant Franchot. We will likely have to wait for provisional ballots to be counted in this race and in various lower-ballot races.
Gansler Won the AG Race in Prince George's
Simms received 43% of the statewide vote in his late bid for the attorney general's office compared to 55% for Gansler. Gansler leads Simms by 54 to 38% in Prince George's with over one-half of the precincts reporting--a margin very close to his statewide margin. Region trumped race in Prince George's. Gansler's assiduous courting of opinion makers and Prince George's voters paid off. The more cynical are suggesting that black politicians with statewide ambitions in Prince George's didn't want Simms to win for fear it might close off their opportunities.
Leggett's Historic Yet Ordinary Win in Montgomery
As a general rule, African Americans don't win many elections in jurisdictions less than 15% black. Leggett didn't just break this rule, he ran over it. At the current time, the Montgomery County Board of Elections reports Leggett trouncing Silverman with 61% of the vote. I imagine the returns could shift somewhat as returns continue to dribble in over the next week. However, Leggett has a solid lead right now.
The general election is a coronation of the Democrat nominee in Montgomery, so Leggett looks likely to become the first black county executive of Maryland's largest county. I suspect the press will underplay this achievement. Montgomery is a suburb and gets far less coverage than Washington even though it is far more populous and being elected county exec is like being elected mayor of a city with close to 1 million people. It is an achievement for both Montgomery and for Leggett.
At the same time, perhaps the real achievement is that it was such an ordinary election in which race was so rarely mentioned or really even a major undertone of the election. Leggett won because he was on the right side of the issues now. He is perceived as mildly more anti-development than Silverman when the County is an anti-development mood. Leggett was also just better liked than Silverman and had a long record of public service and winning elections in this county.
Jack Johnson Barely Hanging on in Prince George's
I still hold out hope that the Jackson jinx will kick in and Jack Johnson will lose to Rushern Baker. Prince George's has so much potential and deserves a better leader who will work to address the serious problems of this county rather than simply reward his friends and allies. Even if he loses, Baker has done an incredible job at turning a race expected to be a cakewalk for the incumbent into a real contest.
Steele Will Play the Race Card
Democrats have now nominated Anthony Brown for Lt. Governor. However, Steele who was also the only black on his party's statewide ticket will now claim that the losses by Simms and Mfume show that the Democrats take the black vote for granted but never reward it with high office. Leggett's stunning victory in heavily non-black Montgomery will only counter that impression so much. Steele will drag out his supposed victimization as a black Republican to persuade African Americans to vote for him. Steele may even attempt to revive the obviously false Oreo story as part of an effort to gain black votes.
Cardin needs to constantly remind voters of Steele's great love of George Bush and that his supposed independence is simply untrue. The man running against lobbyists is happy to accept campaign donations from them. He has been happy to ride Bush's coattails. Since Bush is incredibly unpopular among Maryland African Americans, the close support of Steele at the 2004 Republican Convention should be repeatedly highlighted.
Cardin should also encourage Steele to debate and hold lots of meetings. Cardin may be a bit steady and dull but Steele is a walking gaffe machine when he gets away from his handlers. He is bound to make some (more) incredible statements if you get him going. Still, it will be hard for Steele to top his comparison of stem-cell research to the Holocaust.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Quick and Dirty Analysis
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Voting Extended
A judge has just ruled that the polls will stay open one extra hour (until 9PM) as a result of the voting problems which have occurred today. However, voters who are not in line by 8PM will have to vote by provisional ballot for reasons that I do not understand.
The story also mentioned, by the way, that the Friendship Heights polling station was not operational until 10AM.
Election SNAFU Q & A
I thought I would respond to some of the comments posted about my entry on problems with voting in the primary.
Its not clear the provisional votes count at all!
I wouldn't worry too much about the provisional ballots being counted. If you are on the registration list, the ballot should be counted. However, the large number of provisional ballots will likely delay the final count by several days because the County will need to verify that you are on the registration list and registered with the appropriate party before counting the ballot. Moreover, they will have to be tabulated by hand.
So - why was Tom Perez's name still on the ballot?
Perez's name was still on the ballot because it was deemed impossible to redo the absentee ballots and reprogram the voting machines in time for the primary. Gansler's campaign worker at my polling place was unhappy about the absence of the promised large signs announcing that Perez was to appear. Unsurprisingly, she also thought it was fine that Perez had been thrown off the ballot and that the Court was undebatably right. She didn't think much of the idea of early voting either.
I think this about sums up the extent of this "disaster": During a morning news conference, many candidates in Montgomery County expressed concern that voters had been disenfranchised. Douglas F. Gansler, a Democratic candidate for attorney general, said that at least 35 people had left his polling place because of long lines
Come on...
While I generally don't like jumping to conclusions or overdramatizing a problem, I think this person is way off base here. First, let's just take Doug Gansler's number at face value. There are 230 or so precincts in Montgomery. If 35 people in each precinct were turned away, over 8000 people couldn't vote during the approved voting hours. Second, the number of people who actually left the polling place is a severe underestimate of the number who wanted to vote but didn't. There were widespread news reports announcing the problems and encouraging people to vote later. As a result, the normal morning election rush basically didn't occur in many places. When the polls are supposed to open at 7AM and aren't really operational until 8:30-9AM (as occurred in two large precincts near me), it is a major problem. Remember that this was affecting not just one or two polling places but most of them.
It is unfair to voters--not to mention candidates who worked hard on their campaigns--that the election is being botched in this manner. Moreover, to the extent that people may vote at higher rates in some areas as a result of the problem, it may alter a few outcomes. Additionally, I personally saw evidence that election judges were having problems operating the new machines for checking in voters as the machine crashed when I went to vote. Some people find the touchscreens confusing as well.
Election Disaster in Montgomery
The Montgomery County Board of Elections failed to deliver the cards needed to activate the County's electronic voting machines. As a result, the polls were not able to open on time throughout the County. Some voters were able to cast provisional paper ballots. However, polling places had a limited supply. I was handing out campaign literature at Rollingwood School and they ran out eventually. In any case, few voters showed up for the traditional pre-work rush to the polls at this normally very busy precinct because of news reports of the problem.
It took some time time to get the electronic machines up and running as the cards had to be delivered by hand to each of the County's 238 precincts. The polls are supposed to open at 7AM. Rollingwood didn't get its electronic machines up and running until around 8:20AM. Chevy Chase Elementary didn't get their machines up until at least 15 minutes later.
The problems didn't stop there. The County has now moved to an electronic system for checking in voters when they arrive at the polls. After the election judge checks in the voter, the machine prints out a receipt which the voter must sign and encodes the electronic card which allows the voter then inserts in the voting machine to activate it. Just as the election judge checked me in, the machine crashed. When it restarted, it said that I had already voted even though I had not. Fortunately, it had encoded the card to allow me to vote and I was able to cast a ballot even though it did not print out a receipt. We had to take care of that part manually.
Meanwhile, some voters clearly still find the electronic machines confusing. Two older voters at the booth next to mine accidentally cast their ballot before they had finished voting for all of the offices. I don't know if this is a common problem but I can see how people might accidentally flip past some screens and then hit cast a ballot. The touch pad locates the "next screen" and "cast your ballot" buttons in the same part of the screen. It seems possible to flip past a "page" of the ballot and even to cast your ballot by accident.
If fewer people vote in Montgomery, it could have a big impact on the election. Ben Cardin expects to do well here so fewer voters in Montgomery would likely aid Kweisi Mfume. Doug Gansler, the County's State's Attorney, is running for Attorney General and similarly would like a high turnout in Montgomery in his race against Stuart Simms, a former State's Attorney from Baltimore City.
Within Montgomery, individual local and state legislative candidates could benefit if some polling places got their machines up and running earlier than others as well. There is talk of extending voting around the state. However, many voters who showed up at the polls in the morning may not be able to return or be sufficiently motivated.
Expect the count to be delayed tonight. There will be a unusually large number of provisional ballots to count and the closing time for the polls may be delayed.
See You After the Election
It is late at night and the candidates are racing around putting up signs in front of polling places. Tomorrow night, you can find Montgomery County election results online from the County Board of Elections. I will be handing out literature for the District 18 Democratic Team (Rich Madaleno, Jane Lawton, and Ana Sol Gutierrez) tomorrow at Rollingwood School Center so stop by and say hello if you're there. Best of luck to everyone.
Monday, September 11, 2006
Zogby Says Ehrlich-Steele Trails Badly
The latest poll from Zogby for the Wall Street Journal shows Ehrlich badly trailing with only 39.6% of the vote to 52.5% for O'Malley--outside of the poll's 3.9% margin of error. That's a 3.1% gain over Zogby's August poll which had O'Malley's lead at 9.8%, suggesting that Ehrlich's latest ad wave in Baltimore has had little impact. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race from showing the race tied to this poll giving O'Malley a significant lead. Bad news either way for Ehrlich as incumbents who win usually start ahead and stay ahead rather than come from behind.
Interestingly, Zogby also has Kweisi Mfume 10 points up over Michael Steele in the Senate race. We will have to wait and see whether Zogby is just way off in Maryland or if the state has decided that one term of both Ehrlich and Steele was more than enough. I tend to think both the gubernatorial and senatorial races are closer than he reports.
The Power of Money in District 18
The District 18 campaign shows the value of money in a political campaign. Jeff Waldstreicher and Dan Farrington have been the most successful fundraisers in our district this year. Both have raised over $110,000 in an effort to win a seat in the House of Delegates.
Sources
Jeff Waldstreicher's campaign is heavily financed by personal and family support. Jeff gave (not loaned, gave) his own campaign $79,025. As one of his opponents acerbically commented, that would be a nice down payment on a place to live for most young, engaged couples. Jeff raised an additional $25,200 from people named either Waldstreicher or Stromberg (the surname of Jeff's fiancee). One should add that Jeff's family has supported him with more than just their pocketbooks. They have joined Jeff in the hard work of politics on the campaign trail and cheered him on every step of the way.
Dan Farrington's campaign has a broader donor base. Indeed, Dan has used the large numbers of donors to advertise in emails about the breadth and depth of support for his campaign. Dan's has also attracted donations from businesses, such as Architectural Cerarmics. One can speculate that Dan's past career at a blue-chip law firm may have helped Dan meet people with money to give to campaigns. However, Dan is also a charming, likeable guy so his ability to attract support does not shock in any case. Of course, Dan's ability to lend his campaign $30,000 hasn't hurt, though that is a significantly lower share of his total campaign funds than either for Jeff Waldstreicher or Dana Beyer. Dan's family appears behind him his well; I met his mother doing her best to give away Dan's signs at MCEA on Saturday.
Spending
The high number of dollars raised by Jeff and Dan has allowed them to do more to contact voters than other campaigns. I have received a steady stream of mail from both candidates.
Jeff has been particularly relentless in bombarding us with mail. Jeff has also recently sent out mail tailored to different areas of District 18. The flyer received by voters living in Chevy Chase residents had a testimonial from a Chevy Chase resident and says that Jeff has "a plan for Chevy Chase." I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Jeff has a plan for Kensington and other parts of the district as well. Jeff has also just sent out an impressive batch of emails reminding people to vote and telling them where their polling place is located.
Dan has similarly sent out many pieces of direct mail, though fewer than Jeff. However, the large number of flyers has allowed Dan to develop separately several different campaign themes in individual flyers rather than combine them into a single piece of literature. Dan's final mailer cleverly integrated the photos and themes of previous pieces of mail in a manner that should remind voters of the earlier flyers.
Perhaps this careful development reflects the influence of the consultants which Dan's fundraising allowed him to hire. Unlike most other candidates, Dan has also been able to hire canvassers to knock on doors for him around the district. On my first day back to classes at American University, I saw an advertisement on a bulletin board urging people to join "Team Farrington" as interns for $9/hour. I don't know if Jeff has paid canvassers though he has knocked on doors around the district and did a last minute lit drop throughout much of the district over the last few days.
Impact
The impact of this spending on the election is not yet clear as the election is tomorrow. However, it has surely helped push both of these relatively young candidates (Jeff is 26, Dan is 33 though both are older than Noah Grosfeld-Katz) into the top tier of candidates. Dollars raised early help attract endorsements from organizations which like not only to back people who agree with them but candidates who will win.
Most crucially, the spending allows candidates to raise their name recognition. Every political science study concludes that voters hate casting votes for candidates whose name they do not recognize. Literature and canvassers help candidates without prior political office build the name recognition held by candidates like Al Carr, who serves on the Kensington Town Council, and Jane Lawton, a former chair of the Chevy Chase Town Council.
Still, dollars cannot make a candidate likeable. The highest spending candidates for the House did not win in 2002. Even Mr. Burns could not spend his way into becoming governor on The Simpsons. If Dan or Jeff win tomorrow, it will be because they spent the money well to build on pre-existing strengths. On the other hand, as James Browning has argued, it also shows why the ability to raise money has become an important political skill, even in races for the House of Delegates, and led many to worry about its influence on the General Assembly.
Standard Warning: I have been volunteering on the campaign of the District 18 Slate.
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Sun Picks Cardin and Hollinger
The Baltimore Sun has endorsed Ben Cardin for Senate and Paula Hollinger for Congress in the Third District seat which Cardin is vacating.
The Mighty Post Endorses . . .
The Rundown
Just in time for the election on Tuesday, the Washington Post issued its endorsements in Montgomery state legislative races. The Post endorsed all of the incumbent delegates in District 14. There are no state legislative primaries in District 15. In District 16, the Post thanked Del. Marilyn Goldwater for her long service but recommended that voters replace her with Regina "Reggie" Oldak due to Goldwater's ill health. The other District 16 incumbent delegates were also endorsed. In District 17, the Post warmly endorsed both incumbent delegates, especially Del. Kumar Barve. Ryan Spiegel won the nod for the open seat.
Districts 18, 19, and 20 provide the hottest action in the state legislative races this year. The strong competition will likely make the Post editorial particularly influential even if candidates have little time to take advantage of it before the primary. In District 18, the Post did not recommend incumbent Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez or mention her in its editorial. The editorial board warmly endorsed appointed Del. Jane Lawton for reelection and had kind words for both James Browning and Dan Farrington who they recommended for the other two seats.
Mike Lenett, who impressed a variety of organizations into endorsing him over both Del. Adrienne Mandel and Del. Carol Petzold for the open senate seat in District 19, similarly impressed the Post and won their endorsement. The Post suggested the remaining incumbent, Henry Heller, as well as newcomers Roger Manno and Ben Kramer for the two open seats.
Jamie Raskin beat out longtime incumbent Ida Ruben for the Post's support in the nasty race for the District 20 senate seat. According to the editorial board, Ruben's effectiveness has waned but warn Raskin that he has much to learn about Annapolis. Incumbent Del. Sheila Hixon also won the support of the Post as did newcomers Heather Mizeur and Tom Hucker. Incumbent Del. Garreth Murray was declared a "disappointment" and not endorsed.
In District 39, Saqib Ali will be in and Joan Stern will be out of the House of Delegates if the Post has its druthers. No mention or explanation of the failure to endorse Stern, who was not included on the District 39 incumbent slate this year, was given. The other two incumbent delegates also won the support of the editorial board.
Some Quick Notes
Four incumbent delegates were not recommended for reelection out of the nineteen seeking reelection: Marilyn Goldwater (District 16), Ana Sol Gutierrez (District 18), Garreth Murray (District 20), and Joan Stern (District 39). Sen. Ida Ruben was the only incumbent senator who did not win the Post's endorsement out of the six seeking reelection.
While the Post endorsed one minority candidate, Saqib Ali, over an incumbent, it failed to endorse two minority candidates, Ana Sol Gutierrez and Garreth Murray for reelection. Gutierrez is the only Latina in the Montgomery delegation and Murray is one of two African Americans in the County's delegation. However, together they account for one-half of the incumbents not recommended for reelection. In addition to Ali, the Post recommended both of the Asian American incumbents (Kumar Barve and Susan Lee) for reelection.
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Van Hollen to Endorse Raskin
Rep. Chris Van Hollen will endorse Prof. Jamie Raskin for the District 20 Senate seat over incumbent Sen. Ida Ruben on Sunday, September 10th at the Takoma Park Farmer's Market at 10:30AM.
District 20 Senate Race Gets Meaner
The Washington Post has written a piece on the rough race for state Senate in District 20 between challenger Jamie Raskin and incumbent Sen. Ida Ruben.
The latest polling scuttlebutt is that Ruben now trails Raskin the polls which may well explain why she has sent out an incredibly dishonest flyer about Raskin just before the election. The flyer claims that "Jamie Raskin helped put George W. Bush into office." The piece goes on to say "his support for the third party candidate helped deliver the Presidency to George W. Bush." There is also a photo of President Bush with a bubble saying "Thanks, Jamie!" Utterly ridiculous drivel.
Heard on the campaign trail: "The only person who could beat Ida Ruben is Ida Ruben and she is more than capable of doing it."
The polling from District 20 also suggests that incumbent Del. Sheila Hixon and Takoma Park Councilwoman Heather Mizeur are locks for two of the delegate seats. Indeed, Mizeur may come in first. Incumbent Garreth Murray, Aaron Klein and Tom Hucker are fighting it out for the third slot.
Post Picks for the General Assembly in Prince George's
The Washington Post has issued its endorsements for state legislative races in Prince George's County. The Post is expected to publish its endorsements for Montgomery tomorrow.
Weird Political Move of the Day
Duchy Trachtenberg is in hot free-for-all to snag the Democratic nomination for one of the at-large seats for the Montgomery County Council. I heard her voice on a robo phone call to my home today. However, oddly enough, it was not for her own campaign but an endorsement of Kweisi Mfume for the U.S. Senate.
I cannot quite fathom why Trachtenberg would link her name to his in a county that is bound to go heavily for Ben Cardin. Trachtenberg also has at least two pictures of herself with Mfume on her website. Of course, she also has lots of other pictures of herself with numerous other local luminaries from George Leventhal to Ike Leggett. Trachtenberg's full-page color ad in the Washington Jewish Week wisely has only pictures of herself and with family members.
Friday, September 08, 2006
Cutting and Running in Prince George's
I knew that Jack Johnson's campaign was in deep trouble when I heard he was endorsed by Jesse Jackson. I'd take the endorsement of Prince George's State's Attorney Glenn Ivey, who endorsed Johnson opponent Rushern Baker today, over Jackson's any day. Jackson may be popular with African Americans on a national scale but he is the grim reaper of politics when it comes to endorsements in local campaigns. Voters generally resent his swooping in to interfere in local campaigns about which he knows nothing. When a scared candidate calls in the good reverend for a last-minute endorsement, you can stick a fork in him. He's done.
(Before all of you eagle-eye watchers point out Ned Lamont in Connecticut was endorsed by Jackson, all I can say is wait. He's still got the general election. Oddly enough, Joe Lieberman in 1988 was one of the few candidates I know who managed to avoid the Jackson jinx.)
Johnson, however, managed to turn Jackson's endorsement from a dignified moment of support from a black elder statesmen to a farce on a grand scale. According to the Washington Post, Johnson has prissily refused to debate his opponent, former Del. Rushern Baker:
Johnson had said he would not debate Baker until he apologizes for ads he considers misleading. And he demanded that Baker explain what work he did to deserve $243,000 in county contracts during Curry's administration. Baker has said he served as legal counsel to the county's redevelopment authority.When Baker heard about Jackson's endorsement, he decided to race to the scene and surprise Johnson by demanding a debate. Johnson was clearly shocked and the type of scene that reporters and bloggers dream about ensued:
You read right. Johnson fled into a chicken and waffle house. I'm still waiting for the YouTube but you can watch an NBC4 Report with some footage (you need to click on "Watch This Report" to see the video).But as Jackson spoke, former county executive Wayne K. Curry (D), one of those who this week endorsed Baker, and then Baker himself arrived and pushed to the front of the crowd. As the news conference ended, Baker surged forward to shake Jackson's hand and then edged toward Johnson. "Jack!" he called out.
Surrounded by aides and supporters, Johnson quickly turned and walked away, crossing an open walkway of the shopping center and retreating into a nearby restaurant while Baker's supporters shouted after him. "You can run, but you can't hide!" they yelled.
. . . .
Followed by reporters, Baker pursued Johnson and Jackson into Gladys Knight & Ron Winans Chicken & Waffles as they made their way to a long table for lunch. At one point, a security guard blocked Baker. Stymied at the entrance, Baker whirled to face the cameras.
"I think the people of Prince George's County deserve to see us meet face-to-face," he said. "That's why we came here at least quietly and politely to ask him to come out here and we'll talk about it."
Is the Purple Line the Third Rail of District 18 Politics?
Wow. A small post on ACT's reply to Dana Beyer's letter to the Gazette on their characterization of her position on the Purple Line sure has ignited a spate of comments. This is one issue that sure divides even Democrats in the district. However, is this is a sharp debate over an idea that is unlikely to happen because the money simply isn't there? As I argued in an earlier post:
Even a county as large as Montgomery cannot pay for more than a fraction of Purple Line construction costs. The state is already committed to spending a bundle in Montgomery to build the ICC. Both Ehrlich and O'Malley claim favor the Purple Line though Ehrlich is a recent convert. However, one suspects that building Baltimore's Red Line would take priority for these two Baltimoreans.NIMBYism is often a problem in local politics. I have friends who refer to the Northwest Current and other variations of this District paper as the "NIMBY News" because it is filled with endless stories of District individuals objecting to the smallest change near their homes. Still, one can understand why people whose homes directly face the proposed route of the Purple Line might worry about the impact of light rail on them.
. . .[S]peaking of Red Lines, the existing Metro system is likely to gobble up state and federal dollars. Powerful Fairfax Rep. Tom Davis has proposed to give $1.5 billion to Metro if each of the region's three juridsdictions will create a dedicated funding source for Metro. Maryland would be foolish to leave this money on the table, especially when funds are desperately needed to fix escalators and buy more cars for the Red Line. If we don't get the federal money, Metro may need the money even more.
Moreover, some of the opposition is not just mere NIMBY. I have neighbors who regularly use the Georgetown Branch Trail and like it the way it is. This isn't NIMBY; this is people who value the existing park. Of course, one may still conclude that "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" as public transit can attack the critical problem of traffic and help promote smart growth.
Virtually all major opposition to the Purple Line is concentrated within District 18 because it would run through the heart of our district. I can't decide if this means that our debate over it is unimportant or not. Defeat for anti-Purple Liners within District 18 would snuff out significant political opposition. On the other hand, opponents are already heavily outnumbered in the Montgomery delegation. I suppose the question remains whether other legislators would defer to the opponents from District 18 because it directly affects their district, though the district's legislators remain divided on the question.
Stay tuned.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
ACT Replies to Dana Beyer
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Dana Beyer disagreed with the Action Committee for Transit description of her position on the Purple Line in a letter to the Gazette. ACT has now written a reply which won't be published in the Gazette until after the primary.
Storm Brewing in Chevy Chase
The Town of Chevy Chase held a forum on flooding and the town's storm drains last night. The forum began with statements by officials from the Montgomery Department of Public Works and Transportation and State Highway Administration, including Montgomery DPWT Director Art Holmes. However, the really riveting portion were the three-minute statements by town residents who expressed anger and frustration over the damage to their property and even health caused by repeated flooding. Some residents have been forced to resort to sandbags to keep the water out.
Potential causes of the problem were identified. The coverage with hard surfaces of more ground in the town by expanded or new homes as well as new development on the edges of the town has reduced the ability of the soil to absorb water. The storm drains are also quite old and no one is sure if they are blocked or sufficient. Entrances to the storm drains may also not be large enough even if the pipes are. Some also speculated that the amount of rain has increased.
Quite a few politicians attended this event in addition to Chevy Chase Mayor Linna Barnes, who chaired the meeting, and the other members of the Chevy Chase Town Council (Rob Enelow, Lance Hoffman, Kathy Strom, and Mier Wolf). County Council Members Howard Denis (R-District 1), Nancy Floreen (D-At Large), and Michael Subin (D-At Large) all came to the meeting. Councilman Subin may have wished he hadn't as he and a town resident (who had actually paid for a private study of the storm drains) had a few heated words when Subin started to warn that it could take time to address the issue and solutions would have to go through proper procedures. Mayor Barnes managed to calm things down. The other politicians in residence wisely said hello and little more.
State Delegates Richard Madaleno and Jane Lawton were the only state legislative candidates in District 18, which includes Chevy Chase, to attend the forum--a missed opportunity for the candidates to express interest on an issue that may soon pass mansionization as the top issue in one of the highest turnout precincts in District 18. (Standard Disclaimer #115: I am volunteering for the District 18 slate which includes both Madaleno and Lawton as well as Ana Sol Gutierrez.)
On Raskin v. Ruben in District 20
This year's state senate primary in District 20 between Sen. Ida Ruben and Prof. Jamie Raskin has easily been the most ugly contest in Montgomery County.
In many ways, Raskin has the tougher battle. Even for a challenger who has mobilized so many people to support his campaign, it is difficult to convince voters to dump a long-time incumbent in what ultimately remains a relatively low-profile contest. Moreover, Raskin has to give voters a reason to dump Ruben without coming across like a relatively young man beating up on an old woman who won political office when the number of women in public office was much lower than today. As an incumbent, Ruben is also able to command greater financial support.
The portions of Jamie Raskin's campaign that have captured the media's attention mystify me. He attacked Ruben for supporting a Senate resolution supporting our troops in Iraq which received near unanimous approval from the Senate. Raskin described the resolution as a "valentine" to George Bush. This characterization seems a bit over-the-top to say the least and one wonders why he is focusing public attention on foreign policy in a race for the General Assembly. Perhaps it is meant as red meat for activists fed up with the Bush Administration but I didn't particularly care for it.
Surprisingly for a sharp, well-educated attorney, some of Raskin's problems are presentational. When Ruben and Raskin appeared on the Kojo Nnamdi show, Ruben was careful to speak in a moderate tone and only sounded a bit snippy once or twice. Raskin spoke quickly and aggressively and came across at times as beating up on a reasonable-sounding opponent. If Raskin had spoken more slowly and with a tone that connoted regret rather than anger over Ruben's very harsh attacks on him, he might have come across as the winner to me. Raskin wasn't aided by the panelist who attacked Ruben relentlessly but was so sympathetic to Raskin that one gained sympathy for Ruben.
Nonetheless, Raskin's campaign has gained major boosts that help explain why he remains one of the candidates most likely to defeat an incumbent. First, Ruben has been extremely harsh and negative, which unintentionally reinforces Raskin's message that she is unliked and ineffective. Ruben's claims that Raskin is not really pro-choice or a real Democrat are both nasty and false as shown by Montgomery NOW's endorsement of Raskin. NOW simply is not in the habit of endorsing pro-life men over pro-choice women. Rep. Van Hollen, who is extremely popular in Montgomery County, publicly rebuked Ruben for her flyer. Rumor has it that Rep. Al Wynn, who supports Ruben, did the same privately.
Second, people who know Jamie Raskin really like Jamie Raskin. Over the course of this year's primary campaign, I've met many people in a variety of settings who live in District 20. They all think Jamie's terrific. One mutual colleague spent much of a dinner I attended singing his praises to me. So many politicians present a pleasing public face but are not well-liked by people who know them well. Raskin may have presented a public image that I have not always liked in this campaign. However, it is heartening to see so many people who know him who genuinely like him and are fully behind his senate bid.
I cannot say the same for Ruben. I keep running into people who say she isn't speaking to them or describe her as a difficult person. I wouldn't mind difficult at all if it just meant that Ruben was a tough pol who got the job done but she has been rated one of the least effective members of the Montgomery delegation--something that has been the focus of Raskin's more effective attacks on Ruben.
Raskin's final advantage going into the primary is the impressive campaign organization which he has built. They have knocked on doors and telephoned voters all over the district in an effort to rally support for Raskin. The hard work of politics still matters a lot in state legislative races in Maryland. Raskin's ability to rally campaign workers to his cause is probably why he has a real shot at defeating Ruben.
Ruben will nevertheless be tough to defeat. People in District 20 know her and have elected her to public office for decades. Over the years, Ruben has undoubtedly done a lot of favors over the years. The electorate also will skew heavily in Ruben's favor as older, white women will make up a disproportionate share of primary voters. It is now taboo to discuss the hair and clothes of female politicians but Ruben's beehive and political longevity have made her a bit of a local icon.
Still, Ruben has alienated enough people over the years that I wonder how many will feel even nostalgia if she goes down to defeat next Tuesday.
Steele Wants It Both Ways . . . Yet Again
Lee Fang directly confronted Michael Steele and showed why his advertisement about wanting to clean up Washington is just more hot air from a politician who has no accomplishments in either the private or public sector worth mentioning. But rather than go on about how I really feel about Michael Steele's candidacy, take a moment to read Fang's post on Free State Politics.
Gazette News Roundup
It's the last issue of the Gazette before the election so there is lots of political coverage, starting with "Battling Dems enter final week". Probably no one is battling harder than Donna Edwards, who is giving Al Wynn his toughest challenge since his first election to Congress.
Meanwhile, Democrats worry about a black backlash if both Kweisi Mfume and Stu Simms lose their primaries for statewide office though Anthony Brown is sure to be nominated for lieutenant governor on a ticket with Martin O'Malley. Senate President Mike Miller worries that the Dems need to nominate a woman (read: Janet Owens, who Miller supports).
The race for Montgomery County Executive is described as "testier" as Steve Silverman has begun running advertisements on television attacking his opponent, Ike Leggett. Some say it is a tea party compared to events in Prince George's, where Rushern Baker is picking up momentum in his battle to unseat Jack Johnson, though Johnson appears to retain the lead. The Gazette has an article summarzing the races for open seats in the Prince George's state legislative delegation. Meanwhile, Prince Georgians have to sort out eighteen candidates for their first school board election in ten years, as well as in contests in several council races.
One of the more interesting articles details changes to the the voting machines. Surprisingly, the article fails to mention that the check-in procedure at the polls has also been made electronic. A friend of mine who attended the training to become an election judge said that most of the elderly people who were also at the training and serve as election judges found the new system confusing so prepare for problems and to be patient.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Gazette Advertisements
Most candidates either cannot afford or don't believe in running print advertisements. However, Jeff Waldstreicher, a candidate for delegate in District 18, ran a half page ad in the Gazette (it's on A-34 in the B-CC edition). Bo Newsome, a candidate for an at-large seat on the County Council, also paid for a big advertisement touting his endorsements. Hugh Bailey has a smaller ad with too much small print to attract attention, though you just got to love the quote from Oprah at the beginning:
When I look into the future, it is so bright it burns my eyes.County Executive Candidate Ike Leggett has a full page advertisement listing his endorsements as well as a long list in teeny-tiny print of "Women for Ike Leggett."
Two organizations ran large ads in favor of its candidates. MCEA ran a full-page ad in this week's Gazette in listing its endorsed candidates. Unhelpfully, they still list Tom Perez (oddly with an accent on the first e unlike on his own website) as their candidate for attorney general even though he is no longer eligible due to a ruling from the Court of Appeals. Oops. The Action Committee for transit ran a copy of its flyer outlining the positions of candidates on the Purple Line, though Dana Beyer disputes their characterization of her position as vague or hard to understand in a letter to the Gazette.
Sheriff candidates seem big on print ads as well. Unsurprisingly, incumbent Sheriff Ray Kight has the largest one with a half-page spread. Ed Clarke, a challenger to Sheriff Raymond Kight ran an ad that is about one-quarter of a page. Rob Moroney has a similarly sized ad detailing his platform and resume.
Comptroller William Donald Schaefer is the only statewide candidate (other than a Republican also running for Comptroller) with a print ad in the Gazette. I am not sure that the use of ALL CAPS in the middle of some sentences is going to help settle questions about his stability. Here is what the ad says:
As a lifelong public servant, Don Schaefer's number one purpose has been to help people . . . ALL PEOPLE!Schaefer's office is well run. If only he could keep his mouth shut and adored Republicans a tad less obviously, he might be a shoe-in for reelection despite his advanced age. It is just too bad that all that compassion he brags about in the ad doesn't extent to Korean immigrants.
As Mayor, Governor, and Comptroller, he has handled budgets totaling billions of dollars and never once, NOT ONCE, has there ever been ANY hint of scandal or impropriety.
For the past eight years, Don Schaefer has worked hard to keep the state Comptroller's office on track. Today, it is more efficient and effective than ever before.
But there is still more work to be done. And in these uncertain times, this is not the time for on-the-job training.
Now, more than ever, you can count on Don Schaefer to roll up his sleeves and continue to help people . . . with integrity, hard work and compassion.
He's been there for you. Now he's asking you to help him.
Broadcast of District 18 Delegate Debate
Charles Duffy tells me that the debate between the eight delegate candidates running in District 18 (Chevy Chase, Kensington and Wheaton) that was held on August 15, 2006 at the Kensington Armory will be shown on Channel 16 TV on Wednesday, September 6th at 9 p.m.
Endorsement Roundup
Big day for endorsements. The powerful Baltimore Sun issued its recommendations for the state legislative districts for Baltimore County.
Meanwhile, former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry endorsed former Del. Rushern Baker in his challenge to Curry's successor, incumbent County Executive Jack Johnson. A big boost to Baker's bid that no doubt will cement the enmity between Curry and Johnson as an enduring feature of Prince George's politics.
The same article reports that Rep. Ben Cardin picked up the valuable support of state Sen. Ulysses Currie and other local officials in Prince George's County. Any inroads that Cardin makes into Prince George's County's black vote make it hard for former Rep. Kweisi Mfume to win the nomination so I am sure that Cardin is glad to gain their support. Even if the endorsements only gain Cardin a few votes, they put pressure on Mfume to defend his base in the campaign's final days.
Owens Slams Schaefer
Maryland comptroller candidate Janet S. Owens denounced her opponent yesterday for dubbing her "Mother Hubbard," characterizing the remarks by incumbent William Donald Schaefer as "coarse and insulting."Schaefer may have just given away his last gasp at holding on to his job and handed the job to Owens who was already poised to take his place according to the polls. The comments both lower Schaefer's standing further and raise Owens profile even as she gains sympathy. Many women who are around the same age as Owens are mighty tired of people like Schaefer assuming that their experience and ability count for nothing. The wild card is the endorsement of Franchot by the Post and the Sun.
Schaefer told Washington Post columnist Marc Fisher in comments published yesterday that Owens, the Anne Arundel County executive, is a "prissy little miss" who wears "long dresses, looks like Mother Hubbard -- it's sort of like she was a man." Schaefer made similar comments in a taped interview with NewsChannel 8. "She's got these long clothes on and an old-fashioned hairdo," he said. "You know it sort of makes you real mad."
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Stormy Weather
The Town of Chevy Chase will be holding at meeting at 7PM on Wednesday, September 6th in the Leland Center Social Hall at 4301 Willow La. on the subject of storm drains--a topic high on list of concerns of Chevy Chase residents in the wake of recent storms. My neighbor has had his basement flooded twice and is "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" to borrow a phrase. I believe that Mayor Linna Barnes and County Councilman Howard Denis (R-District 1) will both be there. While Councilman Denis is up for reelection this year, Mayor Barnes doesn't face the voters until next May if she chooses to seek another term. Department of Public Works and Transportation Head Art Holmes will also be speaking with town residents.
OnBackground Endorses James Browning
I've been reporting blogger endorsements so I should add OnBackground's support of James Browning. My only reluctance stems from the fact that OnBackground, like many bloggers, doesn't identify himself though the endorsement itself is an excellent argument for a vote for James. Any thoughts on whether I should mention endorsements by anonymous people who have blogs? My own view is that anonymity frees one to express opinions candidly but removes a sense of responsibility that accompanies placing one's name on a post.
Lawton Rock Solid in Chevy Chase
OK, I've written lots of posts on the other candidates in District 18, so I ought to get around to mentioning Del. Jane Lawton's fundraiser last night in Chevy Chase since I attended it and support Jane's candidacy. These events are always hit or miss. Sometimes candidates and their volunteers outnumber the people in the community.
Not at this event. On the last night of the long Labor Day weekend, Chevy Chase packed the house in support of its former mayor. I have no idea how much money Jane raised but the turnout and strong positive response indicated a level of hometown support that any candidate would welcome going into the final days of the campaign. Del. Richard Madaleno gave Jane a steller introduction strongly touting her accomplishments since her appointment to the legislature and calling for her reelection.
I just wish I had scarfed down a few less of the brownies and Christmas cookies in the shapes of "J" for Jane, crabs, and donkeys.
First Black Gay Legislators?
The Washington Blade has a story on the candidacies of Anthony McCarthy and Mary Washington for the House of Delegates. You can find out which state legislative candidates are endorsed by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund and make a donation to them online. They include two District 18 candidates: Richard Madaleno, unopposed for the senate nomination, and Dana Beyer, running for delegate. Dana also had a letter to the editor in the Blade this week.
Crablaw Endorses Al Carr
Maryland Blogger Crablaw has now endorsed Al Carr in addition to Dana Beyer in the District 18 delegate races.
Kudos to Noah
Politics is not always an uplifting business. Candidates sometimes doggedly work at making fools of themselves as part of a desperate effort to win public office. Others unintentionally reveal that they know little about doing the job which they are seeking. Some candidates who are normally perfectly nice people metastize into grinches on the campaign trail.
By all rights, as a 21-year old running in the same district where his mother is the sitting senator, Noah Grosfeld-Katz ought to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the District 18 delegate race. However, Noah has earned the respect of the other candidates and voters as he has proved himself both his mother's son in his smarts and communication skills and his own man by running an independent campaign.
Noah is running a lean campaign. While some candidates have raised over $100,000 to seek a seat in the House of Delegates, Noah has raised just over $9000 primarily through small donations. Perhaps surprisingly, the name of Sharon Grosfeld does not appear on Noah's campaign finance reports though other Grosfelds have given to Noah's campaign.
I take the numerous and large sums donated to 26-year old Jeff Waldstreicher's well-financed bid by his and his fiancee's family as a positive sign of staunch family backing--also evidenced by their unflagging and enviable support of Jeff at events--which speaks well of Jeff. However, in Noah's case, I take the lack of dependence on his parents for financial support as a sign of political independence.
Noah has also impressed with his command of the issues. He was one of the big winners of Kensington candidate forum in my opinion due to his fluent discussion of a variety of topics in a confident yet self-deprecating manner. Noah's shortage of campaign cash has allowed him to mail only one flyer to voters. Contrary to the usual method of using only a few words in the hopes that voters remember something, Noah has had to cram all of his endorsements and ideas on to one brochure. And it's a good one. While many candidates this year, including candidates for higher office, seem to be running on issues over which they would have tangential influence, Noah's platform is welcomingly related to the responsibilities of a state legislator.
In short, I suspect Noah learned a lot about politics from his mother even as he has chosen to run his own race for delegate. Noah isn't a favorite this year. However, he can carry his head high after the primary regardless of the result. The Democrats are lucky to have him on their team. All parties need young talent like Noah.
The oft-repeated disclaimer: I am volunteering for the District 18 Democratic slate.
Sun State Legislative Endorsements
The Sun has gotten busy over the past two days endorsing state legislative candidates in Anne Arundel, Carroll, Harford, and Howard.
Making the Case for Schaefer
Marc Fisher, who invented is the perfect wicked moniker for our governor with "Bobby Haircut", tilts at the windmill of convincing Democrats that our garrulous comptroller, William Donald Schaefer, deserves another term.
Central Committee
Most of the candidates for Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee are running together as a team. Two are elected from each of the eight legislative districts and seven are elected at-large by Democrats throughout the County. There are contested races for the at-large seats and in District 19. Here are the members of the Democratic Leadership Team 2006 slate:
District 14: Arthur Edmunds and Tracy Terrell.
District 15: Milton Minneman and Venattia Vann.
District 16: Simon Atlas and Paul Mandell.
District 17: Steve Fisher and Elly Shaw-Belblidia.
District 18: Oscar Ramirez and Vic Weissberg.
District 19: Elliot Chabot and Marie Wallace.
District 20:Karen Czapanskiy and Jose Vazquez.
District 39: Sandra Raymond and Kirill Reznik.
At-Large: Dan Adcock, Alan Banov, Karen Britto, Andrea Eaton, Vivian Malloy, Beth Siniawsky, and Vilma White.
Think again if you think that Central Committee doesn't matter. According to the Gazette, 30 of the 141 current delegates and 11 of the 47 sitting senators were originally selected by the central committee when their predecessor stepped down between the regularly scheduled quadrennial elections for the General Assembly.
Monday, September 04, 2006
Leggett's Staying Potential
In an earlier post, I made the case for why the race for Montgomery County Executive appears to be Steve Silverman's to lose.
One reader of that post (jsmdlawyer) made a savvy comment that the money race is more equal than it appears. Although Silverman has raised far more money ($2.2 million) than Ike Leggett ($831,000), he has also spent most of it. Leggett has husbanded his cash far more carefully. Leggett's last pre-primary report reveals that he has $430,220 to spend on the last days of the campaign. Silverman's report is not yet up on the database but the Washington Post reports he has $642,069 left in the bank. Unlike many candidates, Leggett will be able to come on strong in the final days. He'll still trail Silverman but he'll be competitive as long as voters have not already made up their minds based on Silverman's earlier attacks.
Of course, it is people and not dollars that ultimately vote in elections. And Leggett appears to have some real people power. As I walked down the Kensington Labor Day Parade route, I saw simply tons of people wearing shirts and otherwise showing their support for Leggett. In contrast, the only people I saw outwardly supporting Silverman were the people surrounding his car in the parade route. One suspected that Leggett would have won the votes of parade attendees in a landslide. While I wonder if Leggett is as well know in the newer subdivisions upcounty or among other people who have moved into Montgomery since Leggett left the Council, I just haven't seen that level of passion or breadth of support for Silverman.
Leggett's challenge in the final days is to communicate a coherent vision to voters so that he can both counter Silverman's attacks, which have had an impact on at least some of my neighbors, and to broadcast his own coherent vision for Montgomery beyond his impressive and inspirising biography. And it wouldn't hurt him a bit if that army of support in Kensington today showed up to orchestrate a big turnout for him on September 12th.
One thing is certain: voters in Montgomery have an enviable choice between two excellent candidates.
Leggett-Silverman Debate
Charles Duffy will be hosting a debate on his political talk show between Ike Leggett and Steve Silverman, the leading candidates for Montgomery County Executive, this week. You can watch it on Channel 16 on Tuesday at 9:30PM and on again on Thursday at 9:00PM.
Post Endorses for County Council
Not much time for blogging this morning because I am off to the Kensington Labor Day Parade. Just wanted to let you know that the Washington Post has issued its endorsements for the County Councils. In addition to the incumbents, the Post endorsed Bo Newsome for an at-large seat. In the district races, the editorial board recommended the incumbents as well as Valerie Ervin in District 5. Unsurprisingly, the Post went solidly with the more moderate candidates and did not endorse the more radical opponents of growth.
Sunday, September 03, 2006
Awesome New Site
Mystery Pollster has created a terrific new website called Pollster.com where you can get polls and analyses of polls on many races. It is a political junkie's dream. My only request is for more polls on primary races and, of course, on Maryland.
Silverman's Edge
One of the worst things that a candidate can have happen is for his opponent to shape perceptions of him. The 2004 presidential election showed this vividly as Republicans successfully cast John Kerry's public image as that of a flip-flopper which conveniently deflected attention away from the fact that George Bush led the country into a war on a false premise. Steve Silverman's massive fundraising edge is allowing him to shape the race for county executive. He has started an aggresive mail and television campaign to build a positive image of himself but, even more importantly, shape a negative image of Ike Leggett.
Silverman's tag line for Leggett, "Good Guy. Bad Ideas.", is absolutely brilliant. While Leggett has the difficulty of running as an African-American candidate in a white-majority county, Silverman faces the problem of how to attack a well-liked black candidate in a jurisdiction where many pride themselves on racial tolerance. This tag line makes it easier for Silverman to attack Leggett but at the same time shies away from any sense of racial clash--critical if Silverman doesn't want to promote a backlash--by communicating that it is not the person but his proposals which are the problem.
The slogan is also great because it helps Silverman get around the problem that Leggett is extremely well-liked. When he ran for county council, Leggett repeatedly topped the ballot. I've met him and he is extremely affable. Leggett manages to form connections without coming across as someone looking for political gain--a skill most politicians can only envy but I think just comes naturally to Leggett. By conceding that Leggett is a "good guy", the tag line allows voters to move on to focus on Silverman's attacks a.k.a. Leggett's "bad ideas."
Silverman has managed to land several blows on Leggett's campaign. To take just one example, his claim that "Ike Leggett supports using state public money for private schools" is just devastating in a county where public education is a religion. I remember when I left Montgomery to go to college and was absolutely floored to learn that some places voted down school-bond referenda. A candidate simply cannot allow himself to be cast as hostile to public schools in Montgomery County and expect to survive.
Silverman has also managed to blunt Leggett's natural advantage on the issue of growth. Though Silverman has received the lion's share of developer support in a year where the word "developer" is being thrown around as a the new synonym for Mephistopheles, Silverman is aggressively working to cast Leggett as the true pro-growth candidate and obfuscate Leggett's potential edge on one of the major issues of the day. Silverman's strong support of the Purple Line even allows him to portray himself as someone trying to due to something about growth and to contrast himself favorably with Leggett.
Not all efforts by a candidate with more money are destined to succeed. Some are done is such a ham-handed fashion that they fail. And a really skilled candidate can turn attacks back on their opponent. Martin O'Malley understands this perfectly as he nipped in the bud Republican efforts to spread rumors that he is a womanizer and used the publicity to reinforce the Democratic image of Bob Ehrlich as unprincipled and corrupt.
However, even if one behind in the money chase, a candidate needs enough money to be able to respond forcefully to attacks and land a few blows of their own. O'Malley trails Ehrlich is funds but there is no question that he will be able to respond to attacks as well as launch them. The gap between Silverman and Leggett is far greater and leaves open the question whether Leggett can effectively respond to Silverman or will simply have his message drowned out as the campaign for the Democratic nomination, which is effectively the election here, enters its final days.
Despite Leggett's natural advantage in the current issue climate and that my neighborhood (located near the proposed path of the Purple Line) is a forest of Leggett signs, I increasingly believe that this may be Silverman's race to lose. Silverman is shaping a negative image of Leggett's policies and Leggett has yet to create a strong image of himself and the policies he would pursue as county executive.
Sunday News Roundup
Endorsements
The Baltimore Sun finally weighs in with an endorsement of Peter Franchot for Comptroller and Stuart Simms for Attorney General. This paragraph ought to warm Franchot's heart:
During his 20 years in the General Assembly, Mr. Franchot has risen from an obscure gadfly to a respected and outspoken chairman of a House Appropriations subcommittee. He has a strong grasp of budget intricacies and an appetite to shed light on corporate income tax loopholes. Mr. Franchot is no wallflower, and if he can curb his enthusiasm for straying into matters of policy beyond the scope of the comptroller's office, he will be a strong advocate for the interests of the taxpayer both on and off the Board of Public Works. The Sun endorses Mr. Franchot for comptroller in the Democratic primary.The Sun joins many Democrats in viewing incumbent William Donald Schaefer as essentially too cranky and validates Franchot's criticism of Janet Owens as too close to Gov. Ehrlich and too supportive of sprawl for the taste of many Democrats. Franchot has now won the support of both the Post and the Sun. Will the boost from the Sun be enough to boost Franchot's standing in the Baltimore area enough for Franchot's campaign to shoot up from third in the polls in this fluid race? Janet Owens can claim the support of Baltimore Jewish Times, the local paper of a group that can be expected to turn out in force for Ben Cardin. The Sun also has many nice words for Stu Simms and a few harsh ones for Doug Gansler:
His pursuit of a new Juvenile Justice Center in Baltimore proved one of the smarter moves in the department's history. During his tenure in public safety, he rejuvenated the criminal injuries compensation commission and launched Maryland's sexual offense registry, a program that continues to improve.
If elected attorney general, Mr. Simms has promised to bolster local law enforcement efforts to attack the problems of gang violence, street crime and drug trafficking and would go so far as to designate members of his staff to serve as prosecutors, investigators or auditors at the city and county level. He opposes slot machines and casino-style gambling in Maryland, and while he personally objects to the death penalty (as does Mr. Curran), he has pledged to uphold the law as required by his office. And he envisions opportunities to team with other state attorneys general to help resolve issues of national importance such as energy pricing, affordable health care, and air and water pollution. But ultimately, Mr. Simms notes, he's charged with upholding the law, advising state agencies and looking out for the interests of the citizens of Maryland. We could not agree with him more.
Mr. Simms has been criticized for his low-key style, and it is certainly a contrast to his well-financed and media-savvy opponent, Montgomery County State's Attorney Douglas F. Gansler. . . But Mr. Gansler lacks Mr. Simms' breadth of experience and moderate temperament that is better suited for this critical role.
Will this solidify Baltimore support for Simms despite Gansler's barrage of advertisements?
Meanwhile, fellow blogger Crablaw has endorsed Dr. Dana Beyer for a delegate seat in District 18 (originally seen on Free State Politics).
The Annapolis Capitol has also made its endorsements for Anne Arundel County Council races.
Profiles
The Washington Post has now run profiles of both Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume.
The Baltimore Sun has a nice synopsis of the race for Baltimore County State's Attorney which is of particular interest because of the open seat and because of outgoing Republican Sandra O'Connor's aggressive death penalty policy. They also handicap several state legislative races in the Baltimore region, including the state legislative races in District 40 (Baltimore City). They also survey the hot state senate challenge in District 21 (Prince George's) by former Del. James Rosapepe to incumbent Sen. John Giannetti, Jr. Giannetti, who narrowly defeated incumbent Sen. Arthur Dorman in 2002, has a "strained" relationship with the delegates in his district who are all supporting Rosapepe.
The Sun also reports that Senate Majority Leader Nathaniel McFadden backs Cheryl Glenn for the open delegate seat in District 45 (Baltimore City). The Republican primary for the state senate in District 8 (Baltimore County) also attracts attention as two candidates are vying for the nomination against incumbent Democrat Sen. Katherine Klausmeier. Republicans hold two delegate seats in this district.
The Post has a piece on the open race for Anne Arundel County Executive.
Racial tensions resurface in Charles County as the leading Republican candidate for president of the Board of County Commissioners said that "I do not want to see Charles County become another Prince George's" and "There's a crime wave coming from the northern border." Incumbent Democrat Wayne Cooper doesn't share these sentiments.
Money
John Sarbanes, the son of guess who, leads in the money chase in the hot open-seat race for the Third Congessional District being vacated by Senate candidate Ben Cardin. Indeed, his warchest dwarfs that of the other competitors for this seat.
Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that Ehrlich outraised O'Malley in funds in the 17 days ending August 25.
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Fort McHenry Tunnel Sign
The correspondent for the Baltimore bureau of the blog received a surprise when he drove the Fort McHenry Tunnel today. Apparently, there is a big sign with photos of Senate hopeful Allan Lichtman and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton together saying that Allan would make a great senator this year and Hillary would make a great president in 2008.
Kensington Labor Day Parade
The Kensington Labor Day Parade grows larger every year and the politicians will be out in force with the primary less than 10 days away. Kensington Councilman Al Carr, a candidate for delegate, has already sent out an email inviting people to the parade. Since I am volunterring on their campaign, I know that Del. Richard Madaleno, who is running for the Senate, will be marching with Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez and Del. Jane Lawton, who are seeking reelection. The other state legislative candidates will likely be out working the festival ground which open at 10AM, which is also when the parade starts.
You can also say hello to Rep. Chris Van Hollen who will undoubtedly be marching with his usual band of blue-shirted volunteers. I bet State's Attorney Doug Gansler, hoping to move up to the attorney general's office, won't miss the opportunity to press the flesh either, though his supporters will be in red shirts that you can't miss from a mile off. Of course, if you are actually a resident of Kensington, it is probably a good chance to catch up with Mayor Peter Fosselman and other members of the Town Council.
Lichtman's Letter from the Lockup
Dear Friends,
"We present our very bodies as a means of laying our case before the conscience of the local and the national community." Martin Luther King, Letter From a Birmingham Jail
I am a Democratic candidate for U. S. Senate in Maryland and a University professor, teaching for 33 years. Yet I write to you from a Baltimore County jail. I write from memory because the jailer allows no paper, no pen or pencil in his cell.
I am in jail because I put my body on the line to uphold the right of the people to choose their United States Senator from Maryland, not have their Senator chosen for them by media chieftains or organization heads. I am in jail because I protested the arbitrary and restrictive decisions made by the Maryland League of Women Voters (MLWV), Maryland Public Television (MPT), and public radio station WAMU to exclude from the most important televised debate of the campaign, significant candidates with fresh ideas for the voters to hear and weigh: myself, Josh Rales, and Dennis Rasmussen.
It is ironic that MPT, supported by taxpayer dollars, with a mission educate and inform the public, should have adopted a standard for debating (15 percent in the polls by July 1 - two days prior to the filing deadline) so restrictive that it excludes all but the two old-line politicians running for U. S. Senate in Maryland. It is beyond irony that the League of Women Voters, founded by suffragists dedicated to opening politics to the excluded, should now be shutting down the political process in Maryland.
The standard adopted by the League and MPT is not only contrary to their past practice, but would have excluded from the 1994 gubernatorial debates in Maryland, Ellen Sauerbrey, who went on to upset the frontrunner and win the Republican nomination, becoming the first woman nominated for governor by a major party in Maryland. It would have from participation in primary debates every woman who ever sought a major party nomination for president. In vain, I tried to reverse this decision by filing petitions with the MLWV, the National League of Women Voters, and the FCC.
I took my protest directly the Maryland Public Television on the evening of August 31, asking only that myself, Rales, and Rasmussen to be heard in the debate.
I did not have to be arrested because I was not interfering with any activities at MPT. I was not even in the lobby of the building. I was standing in a tiny outer foyer in front of locked doors to the lobby asking for democracy to work and for voters to decide the senatorial election. MPT could have let me stand there and talk and held their debate. Instead, they decided to call in the police and have been forcibly removed and arrested on the extraordinary charge of "trespassing on public property after hours." Is it hardly "after hours" when public television is airing a public event.
I continued my peaceful protest, together with my wife Karyn Strickler - a political leader in Maryland - because we could not look my 14 son in the eye unless we were willing to put our safety and comfort on the line for the principle.
My background and my ideas are different from the two candidates privileged to debate. If allowed to debate I would have presented voters the choice of electing the Senate's only lifetime teacher and a civil rights expert in 70 cases. I would have explained that unlike the so-called frontunners, as Senator, I would vote only for funds to bring our brave troops home safely and promptly from Iraq. I would have proposed legislation for reducing fossil fuel consumption by 50 percent over 20 years and for securing our voting rights.
Getting arrested is painful and humiliating. I still have welts on my wrist from the bite of the steel handcuffs and a pain in my back from where I was pushed into the police car. They strip away everything you have at the jailhouse, including your belt and your shoelaces, and they clamp leg irons on your feet that dig into your tendons. That's the response of MPT to a candidate exercising free speech rights - clamp him in irons!
They can try to silence my voice, but I continue speaking out for the people of Maryland and America. The issues raised in my protest go far beyond a Senate race in Maryland, but cut to the heart of what it means to live in a free and democratic society. The times are no less urgent today than during the great civil rights struggles of the 1960s. The cause is no less great. At stake in Maryland's senatorial election are war and peace, the survival of our planet, the preservation of our cherished liberties, and the opportunities for our children to have an excellent education and good jobs.
Together, let us take personal responsibility for creating a better Maryland and a better America. Let the voices of the people be heard!
Sincerely,
Allan Lichtman
Democrat for U.S. Senate
Golfer-in-Chief?
Gov. Bob Ehrlich has inspired some fun YouTube videos. Just as the internet and blogs have helped open up and democratize political discussion, perhaps YouTube is paving the way for the internet to do the same for political advertisements. Here is one YouTube on Maryland's Golfer-in-Chief:
Some teenagers have also made a set of spoof adds mocking the governor's approach to crime and immigration. These fake commercials are more fun than a serious critique. However, the first YouTube nicely highlights how our governor likes to take credit for popular initiatives which he opposed.
The theme about his not working too hard might resonate. After all, this is a man who staked his first term on gambling yet didn't bother to submit a bill on the topic until his first session of the General Assembly was about over. I don't support gambling so I guess I should feel fortunate Ehrlich was was too lazy to make any progress on his central campaign issue despite having more power than any just about any other governor in the nation and strong backing from Democratic Sen. President Mike Miller.
However, it never bothered anyone that Ronald Reagan slept late so O'Malley should probably focus on Ehrlich's inconsistency and trying to take credit for other people's work.
Post Profiles of Leggett and Silverman
Still getting to know the candidates for county executive? Check out these largely favorable profiles of Ike Leggett and Steve Silverman.
Growing Minority Political Clout
The Washington Post published an article on growing minority political clout in Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Articles in the past on this topic might have focused on African Americans, especially since there are a record number of serious African-American candidates from Ike Leggett for County Executive to Al Carr for District 18 Delegate.
However, this article concentrated on Latino and Asian Americans. Comptroller William Donald Schaefer's comments about Korean immigrants (not mention Virginia Sen. George "Macaca" Allen) have mobilized Asian Americans just as the recent immigration marches have spurred action in the Latino community. Local Democratic politicians also see both groups as important to court:
Incumbent Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez further explained in the report why politicians are spending time on these voters, even if Asian Americans still make up less than 5% of Maryland's, though 13% of Montgomery's, population and Latinos punch below their weight because of high rates of non-citizenship among people of voting age:The two leading Democratic candidates for Montgomery county executive -- Isiah "Ike" Leggett and Steven A. Silverman -- have sought out these residents, giving interviews on Spanish-language radio and Telemundo's local Telenoticias 64 and appearing on the local Chinese cable TV channel.
Silverman's campaign literature has been translated into Spanish, Mandarin and Vietnamese, and visitors to the Web sites of many Montgomery candidates for the General Assembly can click on Spanish versions. Hans Riemer, a County Council candidate in District 5, has a version of his site in Amharic, the official language of Ethiopia.
The Hispanic Democratic Club of Montgomery County intends to spend $9,000 this election season to mail sample ballots in Spanish to Democrats with Hispanic surnames culled from a database. Hispanics represent 5.7 percent of the state's population but account for 13.6 percent in Montgomery and 10.7 percent in Prince George's.
In the District, local Democratic leaders and community organizations estimate there are 5,000 to 10,000 registered Latino voters. Gustavo F. Velasquez, director of the mayor's Office on Latino Affairs, estimates from census and election data that Hispanics might make up 2.5 percent of the vote "if we have a strong showing." That percentage "can be extremely important in a close election," he said.
In Maryland, Montgomery leaders have found common ground on such issues as education, affordable housing and health care, but they have not coalesced around a slate of candidates. In the county executive's race, the Hispanic club endorsed Leggett, a former council member and chairman of the state Democratic Party. The Coalition of Asian Pacific American Democrats of Maryland backed Silverman. His fundraiser last fall with the Chinese community attracted 600 people and raised $20,000, according to the campaign.
At a fundraiser for Del. Susan C. Lee (D-Montgomery) recently at the New Fortune restaurant in Gaithersburg, O'Malley worked the crowd for three hours to make inroads with Montgomery's Asian community.
With limited time and money, candidates have traditionally spent their resources on those parts of the county identified through voter rolls as routinely having high turnout in elections. Newly registered voters have no such track record and tend to be younger and more diverse. But with super voters aging, Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez (D-Montgomery) said, the growing population of younger immigrant voters are the future and need to be taken seriously.
"Candidates are still not considering them as important; there's still a gap. I want to take advantage of it and so should those truly interested in inclusion and in building a movement of Democratic voters," she said. "The trick is, Will they get out and vote? I'll let you know after September 12."
Post Profiles Dana Beyer
The Washington Post has done a profile of Dr. Dana Beyer, a candidate for delegate in District 18. It's a profile that should make Dana and District 18 proud.
Friday, September 01, 2006
Running on Empty?
Steve Silverman's campaign sent out a flyer saying that "Ike Leggett wants to increase the Maryland gas tax by 50%." Is it accurate? Well, someone has been kind enough to place the original source of the quote on YouTube so you can watch it here for yourself. According to the flyer, Leggett said it on 28 July, so one cannot accuse Silverman of abusing an ancient statement for political purposes.
Unfortunately, neither the YouTube nor the Silverman flyer provide much context for why Leggett favors raising the gas tax. One assumes that Leggett, like most red-blooded Americans, doesn't favor taxes just for the heck of it. Perhaps he thinks it will spur Marylanders to consume less gas which will less our dependence on foreign oil and aid the environment. Maybe he wants to use the money to build the Purple Line or finally fix Metro's escalators.
The flyer becomes problematic when it says "Get to the polls. Or pay at the pump!" After all, the Montgomery County Executive cannot raise gas taxes.
I'm not sure the flyer is a good political move for other reasons as well. The rap on Ike Leggett has always been that he's a great guy but not very decisive. This flyer utterly contradicts that idea by suggesting that Leggett is willing to argue publicly for unpopular ideas when he thinks they are good for our community.
Moreover, while no one like the high prices at the pump, Montgomery County seems as likely to be chock-a-block with liberal environmentalists and security Democrats who think we need to cut our gas habit as any place. And these are probably exactly the sort of people who vote in Democratic primaries, though maybe Silverman calculates (rightly?) that they are already in Leggett's camp.
The other danger of this sort of flyer is that it will increase negative perceptions of the sender. Right now, many may think Leggett is a great guy but that Silverman is a stronger leader even if he a bit hard charging. Montgomery is a big county and more than a bit prone to "paralysis by analysis" so a leader like Silverman who has both ideas and a willingness to push them through can have real appeal. That appeal could dissipate if people think not just that Silverman is not just tough but mean.
Of course, Leggett's reputation as a nice guy could also be at risk from the recent advertisement sent out against "developer-funded" candidates a.k.a. the "'End Gridlock' Gang". While funded on by the anti-sprawl Good Government Montgomery PAC, it is on behalf of Leggett and five candidates for the County Council. It says Silverman limited controls on growth but provides little evidence beyond a rather vague quote from the Washington Post.
And as a perceptive colleague who lives in the County argued to me, Leggett's record is not exactly one of implacable hostility to developers. As so often is true in a primary, perhaps we have two fine candidates who disagree less on issues than on who should be the next person to hold the job.
Which is why I think the positive ad that Silverman is running on television (see the YouTube below) may aid him more. It presents him as a guy willing to work out of the limelight on tough long-term problems. County residents are beginning to suspect that traffic and other growth-related problems won't go away overnight. Someone who looks they will work at them rather than make unrealistic promises to solve them might gain the trust of voters--a critical element in an election where the candidates just don't disagree all that much.
Cardin-Mfume Debate, Lichtman Arrested
Cardin and Mfume debated yesterday. The accounts I read seemed to indicate that the major focus was whether Cardin was too dull and not outspoken enough to be a senator. However, I need to watch the online feed later myself. Meanwhile, Allan Lichtman showed that this would definitely not be a question with him in office as he got himself arrested to protest his exclusion from the debate. It is not every day I get to put up a picture of a colleague getting arrested.
Three Left Out in the Cold
American University professor Allan Lichtman, Montgomery County businessman Josh Rales and former Baltimore County Executive Dennis F. Rasmussen are not happy about being excluded from the televised U.S. Senate debate hosted by the League of Women Voters. I think Allan's strongest precinct may be Chevy Chase Village as I saw a lot of Lichtman! signs there when I was doorknocking there. I also saw a lot of Lichtman! signs lining Massachusetts Ave. inside the District on the way to our mutual place of employment, American University.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Gansler and Simms on Kojo
You can hear the candidates for attorney general spar politely on streaming audio of the Kojo Nnamdi Show earlier today (Real Audio / Windows Media).
