Races We Are Watching

Everyone will be watching the elections for Governor and Congress District 1, but there are a few others we find interesting. Here’s a rundown.

Baltimore County Executive

Democratic County Council Member Kevin Kamenetz is running against former Republican Delegate Kenneth Holt to succeed term-limited Jim Smith. Baltimore County is known as a swing jurisdiction. It has voted for its former Congressman, Bob Ehrlich, twice for Governor but it has not elected a Republican County Executive since Roger Hayden (1990-1994). Smith won his 2002 election with 57% of the vote. He won in 2006 with 66% of the vote. Kamenetz has a big fund-raising edge over Holt. If he beats Holt with more than Smith’s 2002 margin, it’s worth asking whether Baltimore County is truly a swing jurisdiction anymore.

District 3 Senate (Frederick and Washington Counties)

This district is the Senate Democrats’ top offensive target. Senate President Mike “Big Daddy” Miller is pouring enormous resources into defeating conservative Republican Senator Alex Mooney. Miller has a credible candidate in former Frederick Mayor Ron Young. The district has a substantial Democratic registration edge and Mooney was almost defeated four years ago. But the City of Frederick, its most liberal area, elected a Republican Mayor last year. All of Big Daddy’s cronies will be pushing the refresh button on the county’s Board of Elections website all night long.

District 30 Senate and House (Anne Arundel County)

This is the most competitive district in Maryland from top to bottom. The incumbents are Democratic Senator John Astle, Speaker of the House Mike Busch, four-term Democratic Delegate Virginia Clagett and freshman Republican Delegate Ron George. The district has a long history of splitting its votes between the parties. Astle beat freshman Republican Delegate Herb McMillan in 2006 in a squeaker. His current opponent, Ron Elfenbein, is a target of Big Daddy’s negative mail. There are two quality House challengers. McMillan is running for his old seat and released a poll in June alleging that Busch and Clagett were vulnerable. Trial attorney and former Hillary Clinton staffer Judd Legum has a lot of money and is detested by the right wing. The district’s delegation could be majority Republican, 100% Democratic or 100% reelected once all the votes are counted.

District 33A House (Anne Arundel County)

Republican Delegate Tony McConkey is one of the state’s most disgraced politicians and almost lost in the primary. Now he’s in trouble again, admitting to “incompetency and improper dealings” that caused his real estate license to be revoked. Democratic challenger Madonna Brennan is trying to take advantage of his problems. But she has raised less than $30,000 for the cycle and the district has not elected a Democrat to the House since 1994. Could McConkey go home anyway?

District 38 Senate (Worcester, Wicomico and Somerset Counties)

Five-term Republican Senator J. Lowell Stoltzfus is retiring. Freshman Democratic Delegate Jim Mathias and Republican businessman Michael James, who lost to Mathias in 2006, are running for the open seat. Democrats view this race as a pickup opportunity. Republicans say not this year. The tremendous ad war between Congressman Frank Kratovil and challenger Andy Harris might play an unpredictable role.

District 42 Senate (Baltimore County)

Republicans hope that developer Kevin Carney can knock out two-term Democratic Senator Jim Brochin. Good luck with that. Brochin is a right-leaning Democrat who has tangled with Mike Miller in the past and is a good fit with the district. If the GOP beats Brochin, they are headed for a pretty good night.

Anne Arundel County Question A (Slots)

Regardless of which side wins the contentious Arundel Mills Mall slots vote, the very fact that it is being held demonstrates the inability of Annapolis to deal with gambling. This is the second time – and maybe not the last – that gambling will be decided by the voters.

Montgomery County Question A (Ambulance Fee)

Since the ambulance fee would account for just $14 million in Montgomery County’s $4+ billion budget, its fate does not have overwhelming budgetary consequences. But there are other dimensions to the battle that make it interesting. The referendum pits the volunteer fire fighters against a late-forming coalition of the County Executive, several unions and other groups. If the anti-fee volunteers can beat the more numerous fee supporters, they will gain some respect.

We’ll report back on all these contests when the results are in.